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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of the Scottish and New Zealand teams. A packed stadium, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. A pitch invasion to symbolize the home team's momentous achievement.

After defeating Ireland, Wales and England, New Zealand had finally been halted in a international match.

The man from Pathe News was nearly overcome with excitement. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "Where Scottish rugby preserved British pride."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and no wins, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, New Zealand beat the Scots. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Another three years passed, same story. Five more years went by and, yes, the pattern continued.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Scotland's coach has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this challenge is different. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the comprehensive defeats have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, their chicanery, they get the job done.

We're now at the point of the week where positive expectations that some may have held for a Scottish win is likely diminishing. Optimism meets historical reality.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Zander Fagerson hadn't made it. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and if available then his absence from play would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby long before the hour-mark, Fagerson's engine keeps running. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the Six Nations.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of 73 minutes stretched across six years.

And when Rae is finished, there's Elliot Millar-Mills to come on. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, with Darge among substitutes. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Past Encounters

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the opening match of what they hope will be a Grand Slam tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their final surge did the trick.

That and Ireland's defensive shape, their attack, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in the first half and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, excellent second quarters, moderate third quarters and 34 in the fourth. They come exploding out of the traps.

What Scotland Needs

Against Scotland in 2022, they struck twice in the opening seven minutes. Establishing early dominance, the game looked done. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - maintaining intensity.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only occasionally against the All Blacks.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Everything. If they start butchering chances early on then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

But what if everything does go right? Explosive start. A raucous crowd. Electric atmosphere. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Darcy Graham's brilliance.

Optimistic thinking, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from Scotland that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If it's in there, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.